Friday, January 8, 2010

Sweep or Split?

San Jose, CA.--Later today, the Big West Conference schedule resumes with two teams from the south coast hosting the two teams from "up north."  Tonight, UCSB hosts UC-Davis, and Cal Poly hosts Pacific.  On Sunday, they switch partners and do it again.  Not so unusual, it happens all the time.  By some scheduling quirk, the games are on Friday and Sunday instead of the more customary Thursday and Saturday Big West practice. 

Whether played on Friday/Sunday or Thursday/Saturday, these four games should be an early indicater to see if there is a clear leader in the Big West, or if the regular season  will be a war of attrition.  You know, the last man standing.

UC-Davis (6-8, 2-0), currently the conference leader, is hosted by UCSB (6-6, 1-1) who is tied fourth place with two other teams.  If Davis sweeps its two games, they will clearly take an early advantage before going on a three game road trip featuring Pacific, Riverside and Long Beach.  Davis was thought by some to be legitimate contenders for the BWC crown, but their non-conference record was not good.  But now, theAggies are playing much better with the return of Ryan Silva and Joe Harden who have been hampered by injuries.  Silva scored 12 and 17 points in the conference wins against Fullerton and Northridge. 

The Gauchos are a sophomore ladened team lead by Orlando Johnson, James Nunnally, and Will Brew.  The team started well enough, but has lost 6 of the last 8 games.  Johnson and Nunnally are the leaders in scoring and rebounding but they do not get much support from a team that should, but somehow, doesn't seem to have much depth.

Bob Thomason's Pacifc Tigers (8-5, 1-0) play Joe Callero's Cal-Poly Mustangs (4-8, 1-0).  Looking at the records one would think the Tigers would be clear favorites.  But that should not be the case.  First, the Tigers are not a good shooting team and struggle on offense (last in the BW).  Second, the Mustangs always seem to out-hustle the Tigers.  Third, Poly is coming off a winning 95 point performance at UC-Irvine.  If there's an edge for the Tigers it is at the helm...Callero is the Rookie BWC coach while Thomason is the Dean.  Can either of these two teams sustain this modicum of momentum?

On Sunday, of course, the matchups switch with the Tigers going to "Tortillaville," and Aggies moving north to SLO.

It is unlikely any of these teams can sweep their two-game set.  Winning on the road in the Big West is not easy, especially with nine teams so similiarly constructed.  But if one happens to do so, it will have a big advantage moving into the middle part of the season.  The reason:  everyone's pre-season favorite, Long Beach, has put its self in an 0-2 hole.

Given the parity displayed so far in the BW, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the conference winner is determined by coin toss.