DANVILLE, Ca--Happy New Year! Last year, 2009, was a "first" for me. It was the first time I was invited to cast a ballot in several western conference pre-season media polls. I took it seriously...poured over last year's stats, checked out rosters, coaching changes, and non-conference schedules. It took a lot of time, and I only voted in three conference ballots. I picked Nevada in WAC, University of Portland in the WCC, and Weber State in the Big Sky. While I didn't cast ballots in the other three western conferences, I spent some self-absorbed time picking Long Beach State in the BWC, Cal in the Pac-10, and BYU in the Mountain West.
With the conclusion of the non-conference play, it seemed appropriate to evaluate team records and statistics and do a "reset" of my predictions. Before I dug into all the thousands of bits of information available, there was one thing even a casual observer could conclude...every team, every game, every minute needs to bring its best. It's A game. With so many talented players, there is parity between conferences and between teams. So, I started digging through data.
The best source on data came from "Basketball State," Kyle Whelliston's website. After a while, the scouring of pages of numbers seemed so meaningless. Then I saw what I think the difference maker will be. It is: How will teams play on the road?
It has not been a good pre-season for the overwhelming majority of road teams. The six western conference away marks (road and neutral site) are mediocre at best and darn right dismal at worst. The Mountain West has a Road/Neutral record at 24-24 for the best record; the Big West has the dismal disctinction of 17-49. Even the Pac-10 is only 13-34 (only 3-22 road, 10-12 neutral). It's tough out there!
To help confirm the value of the road/neutral records, I took a look at road/neutral point differentials. It was not surprising there weren't many with positive numbers. Some conferences had no team with a positive road point differential, so that made trying to pick a conference winner even tougher, so I went with the best "negative" differential.
Also, I played "chicken." I picked two teams for each conference, to hedge my bets.
Pac-10
I'm going to stay with my original pick California. They are the only team in the conference with a positive road/neutral point differential. In addition, they have the best four starters in Randle, Christopher, Boykin, and Robertson. While Washington and Washington State look like contenders, I think USC is the legitimate co-favorite. The reason is Mike Gerrity. Since his return, the Trojans have not lost.
Big Sky
Admittedly, I have not paid too much attention to the Big Sky conference until last year. Weber State had a very nice season last year, but Portland State danced. But, right now, there are only two teams who qualify as decent road teams...the best of which is Northern Colorado who has a 5-3 road/neutral mark and the best road point differential at 69.5-66.0. Right behind them is Montana at 64.0-62.7.
Mountain West
Right now, the Mountain West is the strongest conference out West. It boasts four strong teams with at least 11 wins. However, two teams have both strong road/neutral records (each at 5-1) and double digit positive road point differentials. I'm going to give an edge to UNLV because they seem to play better defense on the road (73.8-61.8 dif.) than BYU (81.0-68.3). That six and a half point defensive difference will pay dividends when play the other contenders New Mexico and San Diego State.
WAC
Only one team in the WAC has a positive road/neutral point differential. Not surprisingly that team is Utah State. That differential is just 1.2 (64.8-63.6). Stew Morrill's teams can never be counted out of a conference crown, but I have to give the nod to Louisiana Tech with its 7-2 road/neutral record. They have inside strength and that should make the difference in the WAC this year.
WCC
Portland had its "tourney" at the 76 Classic. Since then, it has not shown the mental toughness of the two strongest contenders in the the WAC. St. Mary's is the only team in its league to have a positive road/neutral point spread (77.8-71.3) and it has a 5-1 r/n record. Right behind SMC is Gonzaga at 5-2 r/n, but does not have a positive overall r/n point spread. Each team has the horses, but SMC has Omar, the "Moraga Marauder."
Big West
Perhaps no other conference will be determined by road play more than the Big West. As previously stated, the conference is a collective 17-49 road/neutral. And, no team in the conference has a positive r/n point differential. The closest team to positive is Pacific. Overall, theTigers are the best defensive team in the conference. They really have to be because they are the lowest scoring team in the BWC. Long Beach State is only 3-7 on the road, but they have played a brutal schedule (the strongest in the country). They are my co-picks for the conference, but there are at least three other teams who could take the regular season conference crown.
To recap: Cal and USC; Northern Colorado and Montana; UNLV and BYU; LaTech and Utah State; St. Mary's and Gonzaga; Long Beach State and Pacific.
data source: bbstate.com
